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'Bubble watch' commences as season enters final month
NCAA



    As an automatic-qualifying conference, the Mountain West is guaranteed to have one team get into the NCAA tournament. The conference appears to be in decent shape to add another for the second straight season.
    Getting a third or fourth into the bracket will likely depend on what happens the final month of the season in a conference where the teams seem to beat up each other every week.
    "A lot of times, when you have a number of quality teams, they tend to beat each other up along the way," said Scott Barnes, athletic director at Utah State and the chair of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee. "The Mountain West is a strong conference."
    San Diego State entered the season with high expectations after reaching the Sweet 16 a year ago, but dropped out of The Associated Press Top 25 in late December. The Aztecs (19-6) lead the Mountain West at 9-3, a half-game ahead of Boise State, and have a decent NCAA resume.
    The Broncos (18-6) gave their NCAA tournament chances a boost with a win over the Aztecs and another over Air Force last week to stretch their winning streak to eight games. They could have a good shot if they don't fall apart late in the season.
    Wyoming (19-6) was ranked earlier this season, but took a hit when star player Larry Nance Jr. came down with mononucleosis. The Cowboys lost their first two games without him and won't have him against San Diego State on Saturday. Getting him back and healthy will likely determine Wyoming's NCAA fate.
    Colorado State (21-4) has a good record and a strong RPI, but was swept by Wyoming for the first time since 2009 and has a loss to New Mexico. The Rams look good now, but their chances will depend on what happens from here.
    A few more teams that are rising and falling on the NCAA tournament bubble:

On the rise
    Georgia: A road win over Texas A&M was a big boost. Having a top-25 RPI and top-25 strength of schedule should put the Bulldogs (16-7) in good position for the bracket, barring a late-season collapse.
    Oregon: The Ducks (18-7) have had a nice surge after a shaky stretch early in the Pac-12 season, their only loss the past seven games to Arizona. That was a blowout, but the Ducks have won four straight since. Saturday's bubble-team showdown with UCLA will be huge.
    Texas: The Longhorns (16-8) have a losing record in the Big 12 (5-6) and recently went through a four-game losing streak. Still, Texas has won its past two games, over Kansas State and TCU, and a resume that has no real glaring losses. With the strength of the Big 12, the Longhorns could find a way into the bracket if they play well down the stretch.
    Purdue: Nonconference home losses to North Florida and Gardner-Webb will not look good on the resume, but the Boilermakers (16-9) have been trying to make up for it, winning five of their past six games, including three over ranked opponents. It's still dicey, but Purdue is in better shape than it was.

Falling fast
    Virginia Commonwealth. The Rams are No. 20 in the latest AP poll and, at this point, would seem like a lock to be in the field of 68 if the bracket were picked today. Problem is, VCU will be without point guard and defensive leader Briante Weber for the rest of the season due to a knee injury. The Rams (18-6) have lost three of four games since he was injured, though the last two were also without leading scorer Treveon Graham due to an ankle sprain. VCU just needs to steady the ship at this point.
    Miami. Once in good position for an NCAA invite, the Hurricanes (15-9) have stumbled over the last two weeks, losing three of their past four games. Miami has played a tough schedule and fared decently against the good teams, but hasn't been so great against teams it was supposed to beat.
    Michigan. The Wolverines' losing streak stretched to four games with an overtime setback Thursday night against Illinois, another team trying to fight its way off the bubble. Michigan (13-12) also has a now-famous loss to New Jersey Institute of Technology, which the selection committee isn't likely to forget.
    George Washington. The Atlantic 10 may only get two teams into the NCAA tournament and the Colonials haven't been making a strong case to be one of them lately. George Washington (17-7) has lost three of its last four, including a resume-draining 16-point road loss to Duquesne. A win over VCU on Saturday could give the Colonels a big boost.