The U.S. Census Bureau's county-level estimates from July 1, 2023, only just released eight months later, show that Bulloch County's resident population grew by 1.6% from the previous year's estimate. But a couple of neighboring counties, Bryan with a 3.2% and Effingham with a 3.6% population increase, grew much faster.

Bulloch County gained an estimated 1,289 people after the 2022 estimate, for a new total of 84,327 residents, and notched upward to become Georgia's 32nd most populous county, having been 33rd in 2022.

However, Bulloch's estimated population growth in 2023 was proportionally less from mid-2022 to mid-2023 than the 2.9% growth the county posted from mid-2021 to mid-2022.

So the "Hyundai effect," of dramatic population growth still anticipated by local officials from the construction of Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America in northern Bryan County and parts manufacturers in Bulloch remains mostly in the future. In a recent Statesboro Herald interview, Chairman Roy Thompson of the Bulloch County Board of Commissioners said he could even hope for a "slight slowdown, maybe, so we can catch our breath and just face the challenges ahead."

He may be getting that wish, as indicated by his "natural growth" comment in a county press release about the census estimates. 

"As we continue our natural growth, the Board of Commissioners are vigorously finishing plans for land use, transportation, utilities, housing, workforce and community facilities," Thompson stated in the release. "Bulloch County is preparing not only for the regional growth but  for the nearly 1,700 local manufacturing jobs coming into our  community over the next (three to five) years."

The Hyundai plant, a massive complex for manufacturing electric vehicles and their batteries, is projected to employ 8,500 people on-site, eventually, but the hire-up is also predicted to extend for several years.

Coastal region's growth

Released March 14, 2024 by the Census Bureau, the county population estimates from July 1, 2023 indicate 2.1% average population growth in the previous year for a 10-county Coastal Georgia region that includes Bulloch. In that region, Long County, whose county seat is Ludowici, experienced the fastest growth, surging from 18,395 residents to 19,954, a 6.5% increase for the year.

Bulloch remained the third-most populous county in the region, where Chatham, with 303,655 residents, is still by far the most populous. But Chatham County experienced proportionally the slowest one-year growth, 0.9%, receiving 2,630 new residents. Second-most populous Glynn County was also the second slowest-growing, adding 1,027 residents for a total of 86,172. 

The news release about the census estimates, sent to media organizations by Dal Cannady, communications director for the Bulloch County Board of Commissioners but attributed at the top to county Planning and Development Director James Pope, states that "Bulloch County has been the 33rd fastest-growing county in Georgia, remaining in the first quartile for growth in Georgia and outpacing the statewide growth."

If the estimates are accurate, Georgia's state population topped 11 million for the first time in 2023, up from 10,913,150 residents the previous July 1 to 11,029,227. That's an increase of 116,077 residents, or not quite 1.1% statewide growth.

So, Bulloch County's 1.6% one-year increase is well above the state average but exhibits only half the pace of growth shown by Bryan County and less than half that in Effingham County. Again, Bulloch County's estimated population growth the previous year, from 80,671 residents on July 1, 2021 to 83,038 on July 1, 2022, was 2.9%, so last year there were proportionally fewer new arrivals than the previous year.

In estimated raw numbers, Bulloch County gained 2,367 residents from mid-2021 to mid-2022 but just 1,289 new residents from mid-2022 to mid-2023. All of these numbers are estimates, since the Census Bureau does an actual count only every 10th year.

3-year average

At the last actual census count in 2020, Bulloch county's population was 79,646, officially as of that April 1, updated by a July 1, 2020 estimate to 79,922. So, the subsequent estimates showed Bulloch County adding 4,405 people in three years, to last year's 84,327. That's 5.56% total growth over three years, or an average of 1.85% annual growth.

"The county's current growth rate remains consistent, but we are beginning to see signs of the predicted Hyundai surge in the greater Savannah area through housing permit activity since last July 1, including Bulloch County," Pope stated in the release.

Bulloch, Bryan, Chatham and Effingham are the four member counties of the Savannah Harbor-Interstate 16 Joint Development  Authority, or JDA. It was the JDA, along with the state of Georgia, that purchased and provided the "mega site" in northern Bryan where the Hyundai plant is being built within sight of travelers and commuters of I-16.

However, the county with the highest estimated growth rate in the 10-county Coastal Georgia region, both last year over the past three years, was actually Long County. From a July 2020 estimate of 16,270, Long County's population grew to 17,108 in 2021, 18,395 in 2022 and 19,594 in mid-2023. That's a 6.5% increase last year alone, and a 6.8% annual average through the three years.

The 10 counties of the region are Bryan, Bulloch, Camden, Chatham, Effingham, Glynn, Liberty, Long, McIntosh and Screven. As a whole, the region grew from an estimated 754,898 residents in 2022 to 768,391 in 2023. In the Bulloch County release, Pope noted that the four JDA counties — Bryan, Bulloch, Chatham and Effingham — together represent 66% of the 10-county region's population and that they accounted for 58% of the region's 2022-2023 growth.

Bulloch is Georgia's eighth largest county in land area, so as the 32nd-most populous, it remains much less densely populated than Chatham, which is 49th in land area but has Savannah as its county seat, or, of course, the core Atlanta metro counties.

Candler, Evans, etc.

Several of Bulloch's neighboring smaller counties, most of which are not in the Coastal Georgia region, saw population declines in the estimates for the two years after the census, which were also peak pandemic years.

Candler County's population, 10,988 at the 2020 census and 11,022 at that year's estimate, sagged to 10,947 in 2021 before starting to recover, with 10,962 in 2022 and 11,059 in 2023. Evans County's official count was 10,773 in April 2020, followed by July estimates of 10,792 in 2020, 10,697 in 2021, then 10,659 in 2022 but 10,754 in 2023.

Screven and Jenkins

Screven County's census count of 14,065 residents was followed by a same-year estimate of 14,077 before a slump to 13,970 residents in 2022 and then recovery to 14,174 in 2023. Jenkins County, long in population decline, saw an uptick after its official count of 8,676 residents in 2020 to an estimated 8,764 in 2021, but trended down again in the past two years' estimates, to 8,627 in 2023.