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Bridge 6/8
Which finesse would you take?
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Philosopher John Dewey, who died in 1952, claimed: "The self is not something ready-made, but something in continuous formation through choice of action."
    In this deal, you are in six spades. West leads the heart two, perhaps a singleton. You have the choice of a spade finesse or a diamond finesse, but you cannot take both, because you are on the board for the first and last time. Would you play a spade to your queen or a diamond to your queen? Why?
    North's two-heart response showed five-plus hearts and eight-plus points. The rest of the auction was natural. (If you use Roman Key Card Blackwood, North would show one key card, permitting South to jump immediately to six spades — but there are no bonus points for shorter auctions.)
    Analyze all four possibilities. Suppose you take the spade finesse and it wins. That is fine if East started with king-doubleton, which has an a priori probability of 13.6 percent. But if East has three or more spades, you will need to find the diamond king singleton — less than a one percent chance. Suppose you take the spade finesse and it fails. Again, you will need that diamond king to drop singleton.
    Suppose you take the diamond finesse and it wins. You attack trumps and are effectively home. Suppose you take the diamond finesse and it loses. You will need the spade king to drop singleton — nearly a six percent chance.
    It should be clear — take the diamond finesse.
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